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MLB Rookie of the Year 2010
2010-08-19

There are two very distinct trends that have developed throughout the course of the 2010 MLB season. One that has captured the attention of the public is the resurgence of great pitching performances, with five no-hitters on year, which still has well over two months to go. Although many have taken to calling this season “The Year of the Pitcher,” it could just as easily be called “The Year of the Rookie.” There are many rookies who have established themselves as future superstars, making the Rookie of the Year voting even more difficult. Here’s an attempt to wade through all the superstar rookies and determine who the recipients of the award in each league should be.

National League: Although both leagues have an abundance of young talent, you would have to give the overall edge to the NL if comparing the two. Stephen Strasburg has gotten all the attention, but there is more depth than the casual fan would know.

Early in the year, it appeared as if Jason Heyward would run away with the award. He homered in his opening at-bat and was among the early league leaders in home runs. An injury stymied some of his early-season progress but he was voted in to the All-Star game and has regained his momentum, currently carrying a .276 average, 11 home runs, and 48 RBI. He has an incredibly bright future.

Buster Posey has absolutely dazzled since being called up to the Giants major-league club. He has an astounding .368 average to go along with 8 homers and 33 RBI in a mere 49 games. If he continues the pace he has begun, it’ll be difficult for voters to overlook him at the end of the season.

There are three rookie pitchers who have taken the National League by storm. Mike Leake is unique because he skipped the minor leagues altogether. He has shown that the immediate promotion was justified, starting 19 games and posting a 3.57 ERA to go along with seven wins and just two losses. Jaime Garcia has bettered Leake though; he has a 9-4 record and the lowest ERA of any rookie at 2.21. And then, of course, there is Strasburg. He has certainly not failed to live up to the hype and currently has a 5-2 record and 2.32 ERA. He has astounded many with his command and ability to get strikeouts seemingly at will; he already has 75 in just over 54 innings.

Although Heyward and Leake have had tremendous seasons, this looks to be a three-man race. Garcia has put up tremendous numbers but he doesn’t have the “wow’ factor that Strasburg does. It’s close between those two but I believe Strasburg will continue to only gain momentum, leaving it between him and Posey. Posey may play well the rest of the year but it’s simply too difficult for a rookie to stay near the torrid offensive pace he’s played at. It should be a very close vote but I expect Strasburg to prevail. Strasburg was recently placed on the 15-day disabled list, but if he is able to put up a few spectacular starts after his return, he’ll be tough to vote against. The line at www.sportsbook.com has Jason Heyward at +500 to win the Rookie of the Year for the NL. Could be a very interesting bet to make. He has amazing talent.

American League: The American League may not have the headliners of the National League but has some very good young players nonetheless.
Alfredo Simon has been a good relief pitcher for Baltimore, converting 14 of 16 opportunities and maintaining a 3.03 ERA.

Another solid rookie closer is Neftali Feliz. Although his 3.74 ERA is merely decent, he’s succeeded in 28 of 30 save opportunities and opponents are hitting a paltry .195 against him. The line at www.sportsbook.com agrees as Feliz is the leader according to their current lines at -125 to win the AL Rookie of the Year.
The two best rookies among AL position players are Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch, both of whom play for the Detroit Tigers. Jackson has proven himself as an outstanding everyday centerfielder, batting .316 and stealing 16 bases with his tremendous speed. Whereas Jackson is a speed player, Boesch has more power. He has already compiled 12 home runs and 51 RBI while maintaining a .310 average. Boesch was one of the biggest All-Star game snubs but he deserves this award as of now and it’s difficult to envision him getting snubbed again, despite his recent slump.

System Play shows Washington at disadvantage
2009-08-19

The Washington Nationals are like the dimmest bulb on a set of outdoor lights, they standout for not shining brightly. While the Nationals have a comfortable lead as the worst team in baseball with 43-76 record (-24.1 units), they do deserve props for playing like paid professionals and not throwing in the towel. Even with last night’s loss, Washington has won eight of 12, thanks to a potent offense that has average 6.6 runs per game, compared to season average of 4.5 runs per contest. (Be certain to review all the latest information for Wednesday’s wagering events by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)

In spite of playing better baseball, the Nationals have earned their stripes as the worst team in the game. Washington has the highest earned run average in the National League at 4.98. When the starting pitchers fail, which is often the case, a collection of less than desirable relievers take their place, with an even worse ERA (5.07). Washington’s non-starters have brought little relief as 17-33 record proves and the recent spike in run production has helped the closers get over the .500 mark (.533) since the first week of the season.

The Nats were 4-3 losers to Colorado last night in Game 1 of the series and will face the ace of the Rockies staff, Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55 ERA). The veteran right-hander has embraced pitching for Colorado and has spearheaded a staff which has contributed mightily to the Rockies leading the wild card race in the senior circuit, while within striking distance of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado (66-53, +10.6 units) is giving no indication of fading away, winning seven of last 11 and continuing to play surprisingly well on the road with 34-30 record, despite a team batting average of .238.

Colorado is 30-14 (+21.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season and will face starter Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00), who has been allowing the long ball early and often. The rookie right-hander has surrendered three homers and five runs in each of his last two outings. Washington comes into this contest 13-34 revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last two seasons.
If this doesn’t sound like a great situation for Washington, it’s not and Colorado is a -160 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com. Here is the situation the Nationals face tonight.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are ordinary offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game, against a good NL starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.
This system has been a reliable winner for a dozen years at 52-14, 78.8 percent. For the most part, these games have not been close, opening the door for potential run line action, with a score differential 2.6 runs. Take a closer look at this contest, the odds lineup in the bettor’s favor on the road favorite.

MLB: Orioles flying high and are slight underdogs
2009-06-24

It was looking like another glum baseball season in Baltimore, especially after the Orioles started 2-8 in June, but quicker than you can say John minus Kate ain’t eight, the O’s have won five in a row and seven of eight. Baltimore (32-37, -3 units) has feasted on the National League with 9-3 record and has six games this week trying to edge even closer to .500, starting in Florida. On Tuesday, Baltimore is a slight +100 dog, and with Florida’s past domination in the series, expect most bettors to be backing the hosts.

The Orioles have everyday lineup has meshed together, scoring 6.1 runs per game during this eight-game period, compared to 4.6 in all games played. Even the Baltimore starting pitchers have been effective. This no-name group has Jeremy Guthrie as the only recognizable name to even a fairly ardent baseball fan.

“I feel like we’ve improved,” Orioles manager Dave Trembley told the team’s official Web site. “There are a lot of things going on. We’re getting contributions from everybody, our bench has contributed, our situational hitting has improved. We’re getting key hits when it counts. We’re playing with confidence and we’re having a lot of fun. That’s what happens when everybody plays as a team.”

That was especially evident in sweep of the defending World Series champs Philadelphia at the there park. The Orioles will face an even greater challenge playing at Landshark Stadium for three games.
Baltimore has just five wins in 18 tries against Florida in interleague action, with only one win in Miami in nine ballgames. In spite of winning three in Philly, the Birds are still feckless 11-20 on the road and 16-35 as visitors dating back to last season.

They will try to get off to good start with Koji Uehara (2-4, 4.30 ERA, 1.253 WHIP), who is a rookie in name only at 34 years old. The Japanese veteran Uehara has not won since April 13, but hasn’t pitched poorly in last nine starts, with more than respectable 3.73 ERA in that span. He’s been too often caught up in the Orioles lack of run production, as Uehara has seen 2.3 runs per start since his last victory.
Baltimore will face left-hander Andrew Miller (2-3, 4.56, 1.559) of the Marlins, who continues flounder. Granted, most lefties take longer to develop, but the 6’6 Miller is not only tall, but has long arms, which has made his ability to have a repeatable delivery difficult. Though his fastball is lively and he has 43 punchouts in 51 1/3 innings, Miller also handed out 27 free passes. The Orioles have beaten the last five lefty starters they have encountered.

Florida (35-36, +0.7 units) has been coming around, with 6-3 record in last nine games, all versus the American League. The offense tends to be like the nearby Atlantic Ocean tide, it rises and drifts away. The best news is the Marlins are 14-6 (+11.9 Units) after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits.

Sportsbook.com has placed Florida in the favorite’s role at -110 on the money line with a total 9. The Fish are 8-3 at home against teams that have less than .400 road record and they are 12-3 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last three seasons and Miller is the starter. Baltimore is 2-8 against clubs with losing record and is 23-10 OVER against left-handed starters on the road since last season.

Baltimore last won six straight on April 2-8, 2008 and will try to match that streak starting at 7:10 Eastern on MLB.TV.
StatFox Power Line – Baltimore -117

MLB: Betting Baseball Home Openers – Part 2
2009-04-13

The first wave of teams playing in their home ball parks has passed and the next group is ready to kickoff their own celebrations, having a couple of wins or losses, unlike their predecessors. In all, seven different teams will be conducting Opening Day ceremonies. Here’s a look at the late afternoon and evening games for Friday. Get the latest lines on the LIVE ODDS page.

Toronto at Cleveland 4:05 E
The Toronto Blue Jays should take a picture of the AL East standings, being in first place, since the quality of the competition is likely to catch up and surpass them as the season wears on. For now anyways, the Blue Jays bats are hot and will go up against a pitching staff that looks like it’s a mess already. This is Cleveland’s home opener and they need starter Scott Lewis to pick up right where he left off from last season. The left-hander was a September call-up and won all four starts with a sparkling 2.63 ERA. This afternoon, he will try to become the first Tribe pitcher to win first five games in 88 years. The Indians are 20-6 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more and are a -145 favorite with total of nine. Cleveland has caged the Blue Jays with 15-2 record at home.

Chicago at Milwaukee 4:05 E
Opening Day in Milwaukee is always one of the more festive occasions in baseball, with a light grey cloud of smoke emitting from the grills packed with hamburgers and every sausage known to man. Besides the always welcome back reunion, Brewers fans have a team returning from the postseason in over two decades and the hated Cubs are in start the home campaign. Milwaukee is a +140 money line underdog, having to face the Cubs Rich Harden. The Chicago right-hander is 61-23 as a favorite of -110 or higher in his career (Team's Record) and the Cubs are 21-8 as road favorites. The Brewers revamped pitching staff includes Brandon Looper, who is 3-12 when facing a club with a winning record (Team’s result). Nonetheless, the Brew Crew has been very good at Miller Park and is 55-26 in home games in the first half of the year over the last two campaigns. Of the home losses suffered, five came last season to Chicago.

Philadelphia at Colorado 4:10 E
Normally a player chosen as MVP of the World Series and NL championship series would be on the field from opening day, unless of course something is amiss. Pitcher Cole Hamels experienced elbow tightness during the spring, raising concerns about the 262+ innings he logged last season in leading Philadelphia to World Series championship. A team physician found no damage in his sore left elbow and the left-hander is ready to go. The Phillies played like they thought it was still spring-training and were almost swept at home by Atlanta. They had eight-run inning Wednesday to help salvage one game and are 19-7 off a win.

This is Colorado’s home opener after taking two of three against Arizona, totaling 20 runs. The Rockies are 9-1 against the money line off two straight upset wins over division rivals as a road underdog and will hand the ball to Jason Marquis. Colorado is a +123 money line underdog with total at 9.5 and Marquis is 11-0 OVER against NL East opponents. (Team's Record)

New York at Kansas City 4:10 E
This season, Kansas City fans have a little extra to cheer about other than the fact baseball is back. Kauffman Stadium has undergone a $250 million renovation project to bring the grand ballpark up to current major league standards and the on the field product offers more hope than in years. The Royals got three well-pitched games in winning series in Chicago; this might not be the case with Sidney Ponson being the starter against New York. Ponson typically shows enough to warrant a look, but there is a reason why Kansas City is a +155 home underdog. Oddly, Ponson isn’t a bad wager as a +125 to +175 money line underdog with 37-34 (+18.8 Units) record. The Yankees will start Andy Pettitte, who is 7-0 in 11 starts against Kansas City and 49-20 when the veteran lefty is favored in -151 to -200 range. The Royals will try to turn things around having three wins in 10 tries versus New York at home.

Washington at Atlanta 7:35 E
Derek Lowe signed a $60 million deal to become the Atlanta Braves ace and the home fans figure to be excited off what they saw in first game. Lowe’s trademark sinker induced 13 Phillies batters to ground out over eight shutout innings. Atlanta nearly took all three games versus division rival Philadelphia except for bullpen meltdown and is 29-13 when playing with a day off. Washington started about as expected, losing all three in Florida and is 14-41 after three or more consecutive road games. The Nationals will trot out recent 22-year old Shairon Martis who sported 2.76 ERA this spring. Atlanta is a -200 money line choice in home opener with total Un8.5 and the Nats are 8-30 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5.

Seattle at Oakland 10:05 E
After a successful start to the season, the Oakland A’s return to the Bay Area to take on another AL West representative. The Athletics won last two games in Anaheim, pounding out 31 base hits to upend the Angels. Oakland won seven of last eight home games in 2008 and will unveil left-hander Brett Anderson to the home fans. Anderson was a key component in the Dan Haren trade to Arizona and the 21-year has an excellent feel for his craft. He will face a converted reliever in Ryan Rowland-Smith for Seattle. What made the Mariners want to try Rowland-Smith as starter was he has four pitches (none overpowering) that he can throw for strikes and is willing to alter assortment as he goes through the line-up a couple of times. Seattle is +140 money line underdog, with total hovering at O8. They are 8-20 in that role and 10-28 when total is 7-8.5. The M’s have performed well in Oakland, winning 11 of 18 the last two years.

MLB: When bad teams are favored
2008-08-13

For every great matchup on a given Major League Baseball day, there are two less appealing contests. In a bettor’s world, all of the games mean the same, so ignoring the likes of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, or Baltimore-Cleveland can prove damaging to one’s bankroll. This is especially the case on days like Tuesday, when the Reds and Indians will be playing as favorites. It seems though that the public has taken notice, with more folks at Sportsbook.com betting the underdogs in early action. Though both games boast similar lines, they set up rather differently. Take a look.

In Pittsburgh, the Reds are favored for one reason: Edison Volquez. Oddsmakers are clearly giving Volquez the benefit of the doubt here, despite the fact that his club has dropped nine of its L10 games while the Pirates have played with heart over the past week. In fact, just yesterday, Pittsburgh rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to upend the heavily favored Mets in an afternoon contest at Shea. Ironically, Volquez’s own recent struggles have mirrored the teams, as he has been hit hard in his last three outings, allowing 15 runs in 15-1/3 innings. He has also lost twice to Pittsburgh in as many outings this season.

Also seemingly being ignored here is the fact that Cincinnati has been awful on the road at 21-36, while Pittsburgh has defended its home field well, going 32-26 thus far for +7.2 units.

Overall for the season, Pittsburgh leads the head-to-head series, 6-3, including 3-0 at home. Two of the wins came in the most recent matchups in early July, leading to a strong StatFox Super Situation for tonight’s game:

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. (96-58 since 1997.) (62.3%, +46.8 units. Rating = 3*)

Game time for this contest is 7:10 PM ET. Cincinnati is a questionable -110 favorite, and the total is set at U8.5 -125.

In the other aforementioned contest, Cleveland hosts Baltimore and opened as a -125 favorite in the contest. The Indians have played better of late, winning four straight games. In fact, one more win tonight will match their season high winning streak. It remains to be seen whether or not its too early to start jumping back on this bandwagon. The Tribe remains 11-games under .500 and 12-1/2 games out of first in the A.L. Central Division, behind all four other teams.

Yesterday’s 13-8 win by Cleveland in the opening game of this series actually sets up Cleveland for a number of powerful trend scenarios. Here are a few of those:

BALTIMORE is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND is 19-3 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 6.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Tonight’s pitchers are a pair of left-handers in Garrett Olson for the O’s and Jeremy Sowers for the Indians. Neither pitcher warrants a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers and each averages less than 5-2/3 innings per start, so this one might wind up being determined in the late innings.

StatFox Edges: Pittsburgh, Cleveland

MLB: Normal Wagering returns with League Play
2008-07-01

For many baseball purists, the return of major league baseball teams competing in their respective leagues is a welcome sight, with interleague action wrapped up for another season. Some of the first series’ out of the gate are key divisional contests, including Boston and Tampa Bay, where 64% of Sportsbook.com bettors have already jumped on the side of the host Rays for Monday’s game.

For competitors in the same division, the games have the two-for-one quality, meaning each contest either advances situation or puts a team further back. Here is a look at tonight’s top games, in relation to what they mean in the standings as each teams gears up for the second half of the season.

Boston at Tampa Bay
For those that don’t like a global economy, have a flashing 12:00 on DVD/VCR machine and think Blu-ray is a cosmic light from outer space, getting over the fact the Tampa Bay Rays are actually good enough to be in first place with July arriving, is unsettling. The Rays are a half a game in the standings ahead of Boston and two in the loss column. This is easily the most anticipated series this week, with enough bad blood; Tony Soprano should be sitting behind the Tampa Bay dugout. Tampa Bay felt Boston’s Coco Crisp had attempted to take out second baseman Akinori Iwamura on a slide, and Rays pitcher James Shields responded by hitting Crisp in the hip with a fastball. That provoked a benches-clearing brawl that earned eight players suspensions.

Crisp charged Shields and exchanged punches with him, is serving a five-game penalty and will miss this series. “I protected my own players and that’s what we need to do around here,” Shields said that night. “We’ve been getting stomped around the last 10 years and it isn’t going to happen anymore. I had to let them know early and let them know right away.”

Both teams have mentioned things to the media in the last couple of weeks, this has not been forgotten, however the umpires assuredly have been instructed not to let anything occur. (Traditionalists have to yearn for the days when these problems were solved by the players.) Shields (5-5. 3.76, 1.155 WHIP) will be the starter in Game 1 and is big part why Tampa Bay is 30-13, +14 units at home. Shields and mates are 7-1 when he starts at Tropicana Field.

This is a big week, not critical, but important seven days for Boston, playing in Florida, before heading back north to face the Yankees for four contests on the road. The Red Sox are 19-24, -4.5 units as visitors, scoring a half a run less compared to season average. Justin Masterson (4-1, 3.43, 1.190 WHIP) will try to help prevent the Red Sox’s first three-game skid since they were swept at Oakland from May 23-25. Boston is a mere 4-12 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Sportsbook.com has Tampa Bay -137 money line favorites, with total Ov8.5. The home team has won all nine meetings this season with the Rays 13-3 in home games after a win by two runs or less this season.

Detroit at Minnesota
It took half a season, but Detroit has fought their way back to be over .500 for the first time in 2008. Nothing has gone according to plan for the Tigers, yet now are in third place and within five games of the front-running White Sox. All would be forgiven if they could comeback and win the AL Central. Detroit travels to Minnesota riding a five-game winning streak and has won 15 of last 18, trying to chase down second place Minnesota.

The Twins have been able to keep the Tigers at bay while gaining ground on the White Sox, having won 11 of 12. Minnesota handed Ben Sheets just his second loss of the season yesterday and is 12-1 after three consecutive games versus an interleague opponent this season. Lefty Glen Perkins (4-2, 4.47, 1.543 WHIP) will go for the Twins against Tigers lineup that has feasted on left-handers with 15-5 record. Minnesota will get a look at Armando Galarraga (7-2, 3.32, 1.105 WHIP) again, having handed him both of his losses. Minnesota is a +110 home underdog, despite 37-24 record versus RH starters. Minny is 5-3 in 2008 taking on the Tigers.

Oakland at L.A. Angels
It’s not very often a team scores one total run in a series and doesn’t get swept, however even more unusual when you don’t allow a hit in a game and get beat. The Los Angeles Angels proved over the weekend why baseball is such a crazy game. “It’s pitching and defense - no magic formula,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the team’s official Web site. “Our pitchers are executing and getting in good zones. That’s what we rely on.” This has proven to be especially true scoring one run in last two games and surrendering no earned runs and three measly hits to Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday.

The Angels are up 4.5 games over Oakland in the AL West and will look to extend the A’s hitting woes, when they scored just one run in last two contests against rival San Francisco on their side of the Bay. The A’s are batting .197 with two homers in the last five games while scoring 10 runs. Oakland will send Greg Smith (4-6, 3.69, 1.284) to the mound and it would him if they actually touched home plate with greater frequency, scoring 14 runs in his last 11 starts.

The gang from Anaheim will counter with John Garland (7-4, 4.05, 1.437). The Halos are a -125 money line favorite and Garland is 1-7 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) Oakland is just 1-13 in road games after a loss by 10 runs or more, while the Angels are 15-4 facing lefties like Smith. Los Angeles has won four of first seven in this underrated rivalry and will try to create more distance between the Athletics.